As our economy goes, so goes our housing market. St Louis home sales have been quite strong – especially this spring – so what is up with the lukewarm local economic news we have been hearing?
Well it turns out that our numbers (Bureau of Labor Statistics) have been revised upward earlier this year, and we are doing better than previously told. We knew the unemployment rate for STL has been below the national average for over a year now (currently 4.7% vs 5.0%), but actual job growth seemed sluggish. Several times over the past few months the number of jobs added first came out small or even negative, then was revised significantly upward. Unfortunately the revised number does not receive the same news flash as the initial tally. As of April, St Louis set a new employment record! Just in February, we eclipsed our 2008 employment peak, beating estimates of sometime in 2017. In fact, it turns out we have added jobs at a rate faster than the national average the last 12 months – 2.0% vs 1.9%!
The top industries adding jobs here are professional and business sector, leisure and hospitality, health care and financial services. The slowest are manufacturing and retail. Even after figuring in the losses, 27,000 jobs were added in the last 12 months in the STL Metro.
How do St Louis home prices correlate? We have been on a steady climb since 2012 at 4% to 5% annually. My calculations show that the central corridor in STL passed the 2007 peak last year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (the national real estate resource I trust the most) reports that metro STL just surpassed its 2007 peak this spring. Here again our metro is not as sluggish as is typically reported, as the FHFA states that the national average just past its 2007 peak at the same time this spring. They add that St Louis home prices rose 7.8% over the past 12 months (I think that is a bit optimistic), which would be the most over any 12 month period since at least 1990 when records began. Once again, this rate of appreciation is higher than the national average (7.8% vs 5.7%).
With home prices rising steadily, it may be time for you to find out what your home would bring in today’s market. Contact me now to be on the market this summer or fall.
Gary Hoeferkamp, Broker - Owner of Hoeferkamp Real Estate 