Greetings and welcome 2018!
2017 bestowed another solid increase on the real estate market in St Louis, and across the country. Our local residential market notched a 4% annual gain, similar to the past 4 years, and pushed the average sale price for homes and condos to $234,339. Some parts of the metro experienced more, of course, and some less. The number of sales was up 2.3% from 2016, so home supply is really not shrinking, it is a faster increase in buyers than homes coming on market. Average days on market decreased 15% to 44, with median days a meager 16! Months of Inventory (ratio of homes on the market to how many are selling) shrunk 11% to 2.5 months showing the higher demand.
As for submarkets, I compared 4 factors: days-on-market (DOM), average price negotiation (list price to sale price ratio), months-of-inventory, and sale price increase, to determine hot and cold areas of our metro. I found St Charles County and the Central Corridor (Mid STL County) to be in the highest demand with price appreciation between 5.5% to 6%, shorter DOM, and lower supply. The Central Corridor had the highest average sale price in the region, no surprise, at $400,000. South County showed only 3% appreciation but had strong indicators otherwise, so I anticipate a higher price increase there in 2018. North County had the highest value increase at 7%, but the other factors were sluggish – among the highest DOM and most supply, although every category in every submarket across the area improved. I believe the dropping number of distress sales in North Co helped push the average price up. West County showed a 2.3% price increase, and average indicators. My experience here is that homes below $500,000 were selling faster, and higher prices were slower, keeping the average just average. I believe the big spenders in 2017 were staying closer in, as evidenced by the Central Corridor rise. The city of STL (2.3% up) and Jefferson County (4.3% up) were on the slow side, with higher DOM and home supply. Jeff Co, along with their solid appreciation, had a very low negotiation factor of 99.3% list price to sale price (sellers came off price only .7%), a close second to St Charles, so don’t expect to get a low offer accepted there!
Looking ahead to 2018, economic indicators are almost all positive. With the STL unemployment rate now at 3.4%, and running below the national average, now at 4.1%, for about 2 years; the stock market at all time highs, wage growth increasing, the global economy strengthening, and our region’s reputation for affordability, I anticipate an increase of 5%, maybe 6% in home values this year. Now is the time to be planning and prepping for a move in 2018 – contact me now to take advantage of the best market we have seen in 12 years!
Go Home Values!
Gary Hoeferkamp, Broker - Owner of Hoeferkamp Real Estate 